By: Mohamed Jalloh
It is a valid and legitimate question following the waving of Russian flags by ululating and anxious citizens in the aftermath of military takeovers in West Africa and beyond across the Sahel.
Another resultant effect of the military coups is the resurgence of Russian military, economic and diplomatic presence in the `coup belt` as it has been recently dubbed.
These military leaders did not hesitate to kick out the United States with long imperialistic ties to the region and their former colonial master, France.
France, in particular, is largely dependent on the region for its continuous survival, including a gigantic amount of her energy needs which is derived from uranium produced in Niger.
The Americans whose security footprints were visible across the Sahel were also booted out by the Junta.
The United States was even asked to evacuate her largest military base in Niger.
In fact, the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) which comprise Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced their exit from the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc and went further to make an open threat to withdraw from the global supranational body-the United Nations.
For sure, these western mammoths would leave but they would lurk around in friendly neighboring states such as Benin, Togo, Cote `d` Voire, and Ghana to undermine the authority of the military Junta.
In March 2024, the relationship between the United States and Niger took a nosedive.
There was visible apprehension and unease following a visit by a United States delegation, prompting Niger’s military junta to summarily axe a crucial military deal with the U.S.
This decision follows Niger’s prior termination of two military contracts with the European Union, anticipated to repress extremist violence in the Sahel region.
The AES` denunciation of western bonds and relations corresponds bluntly with its acceptance of Russian military assistance, which is now a continuing development and normaliSation since the July 2023 military coup.
The shunning of western ties reechoes a bitter resentment of western exploitative and manipulative tendencies which continue to keep many African states acquiescent to protect western interests.
As all these major players in the Sahel succumb to military rule and Russian influence and guidance, their actions signal a profound geopolitical transformation, potentially reshaping the balance of power and stability in West Africa.
SIX COUPS, SIMILAR CAUSES
The Sahel region has witnessed six successful coups since 2020, with Gabon’s military takeover in August 2023 following similar events in Mali (2020, 2021), Burkina Faso (Jan. 2022, Sept. 2022), Guinea (2021), and Niger (July 2023) Chad (April 2021),Gabon (August 30 2023).
Save Guinea and Gabon which are not plagued by violent Islamic attacks, the remaining aforementioned states share the same elements that precipitated the military`s usurpation of political power.
In each case, economic sluggishness, unending violent attacks, and seeming cynicism in the civilian leadership were touted as fundamental reasons for the military’s intervention.
Moreover, anti-French sentiments have also been crucial in bringing citizens together by way of lending popular support to the coup plotters.
While the European Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) openly condemned the coup, neighbouring countries like Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali—each having ostracised the former colonial master France professed approval and support for Niger’s military regime.
Burkina Faso and Mali escalated tensions further by declaring that any foreign military intervention would be considered an act of war against the tripartite.
Amidst the accelerated tension when military intervention was considered as an option by ECOWAS, the Juntas were largely able to sway their citizens, as years of unequal relationship with the West offers little or no hope to attaining economic prosperity, security and stability.
The relationship offers little expectation from West Africa as many Western nations are grappling with the global economic reality brought about by post-Covid 19, Russia/Ukraine war, and Hamas/Israel conflict.
Consequently, things will never be the same and the situation ushers in a window of opportunity for the crafting of new geopolitical alliances.
IS EXIT FROM ECOWAS FEASIBLE?
On January 28 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their unilateral decision to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc founded in 1975.
The AES is not relenting; it has recently announced that it will put into circulation a biometric pass port with the aim of harmonising travel documents that would facilitate mobility of AES citizens throughout the world.
It should be noted that ECOWAS is one of eight regional economic communities recognised by the African Union to foster regional integration on the continent.
From an economic point of view, commercial activities are inextricably linked in West Africa, whiles people in the AES more or less speak the same local and the colonial language French.
The reality on the ground speaks for itself, agricultural and manufactured goods traverse the man-made borders regularly; rendering superfluous the demarcations which were arbitrarily imposed by colonial masters.
Therefore, socio-economic disentanglement from the rest of West Africa is not an option for the AES.
Plainly speaking, the AES could barely survive economically without access to ports in Cote `d Voire, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone to ensure the trans-shipment of badly needed imported goods-whether it is medical, convenient or luxury goods. These ports are also indispensable for the export of minerals and agricultural products produced in the AES.
Mali, Burkina Faso are disadvantaged geographically due to an unfavourable location as landlocked countries. So, any alteration of free movement of people and goods will have adverse effects on the AES. In actual fact, families from the same progenitors might be living across frontiers bonded further by the same mother tongue.
The decision to leave ECOWAS can be interpreted as political which is meant to temporarily save the military regimes, but the regional body is using diplomatic and in some cases back door channels to convince the AES to rescind the decision and subsequently return their respective countries to civilian rule. The recent visit by President Julius Maada Bio as an emissary of ECOWAS to Captain Ibrahim Traore` of Burkina Faso is to achieve that end goal.
A purely Sahelian bloc, like the recently created Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), would never be able to substitute ECOWAS, simply due to the regional nature of human and economic flows in West Africa.
RUSSIAN ENGAGEMENT WITH MILITARY REGIMES
Russia`s rules of engagement in the region is very tempting for the military regimes to ignore. The United States and France are known to attach political and moral conditions to their military aid, by way of expecting recipient countries to respect International Humanitarian Law.
On the other hand, Russia has adopted a strategy of non-interference in domestic affairs, providing food, security and weapons without the familiar Western preconditions. To the military leaders, Russia`s policy is more attractive as deals can be shrouded in secrecy and offers no provision for accountability.
As a way of taking a dig at western nations, Captain Ibrahima Traore`, the leader of Burkina Faso lambasted that they could not sell them the appropriate weapons to take on the Jihadists in the Sahel.
He even went as far as accusing the French of playing a double game by supplying arms and ammunition to the violent extremists.
In fact, the AES remains determined to throw off the yoke of economic slavery by expressing desire to terminating a colonial pact that allows France to print and supply the CFA currency which is the legal currency in many former French colonies in Africa.
Similarly, China, the region’s largest foreign investor, offers fast cash and promises of infrastructure in exchange for future resource rights – a tempting proposition for unstable regimes looking to centralise power.
Russia has tactfully exploited the vacuum occasioned by failed peacekeeping missions and military withdrawals by Western powers.
In the midst of chaos and void, Russia normally presents herself as the savior that offers diplomatic support, security assistance, and anti-terror aid to countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Even though Russian territory is replete with abundant mineral resources, forging new alliances that pave the way to access resources have proven particularly useful as Russia faces international scrutiny for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In Mali, following a military coup in late 2021, Russian military advisors and the Wagner Group now rebranded as the African Corps—deployed L-39 jets, Sukhoi-25 fighters, and Mi-24P helicopter gunships, alongside a contingent of 400 mercenaries aimed at combating jihadist insurgencies in the region.
Eradicating terrorists or even retaking territory under the control of Jihadists remains a herculean task for the Junta. Despite these reinforcements, the security situation in Mali has worsened.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, reports that over 2,000 civilians have been killed since December 2022, a significant increase from the previous year.
Notably, a significant percentage of these latest fatality rates have been linked to operations involving Russian Mercenary groups.
Burkina Faso has experienced similar security issues coinciding with Russian support. Since January 2024, a shipment of Russian arms and a team of 100 paramilitary fighters have arrived, with an additional 200 troops expected soon.
However, despite these reinforcements, violence continues to escalate dramatically. Currently, over 2.1 million people are displaced due to ongoing conflict, and nearly a quarter of the country’s schools are inoperative. About a couple of weeks ago about 200 villagers were massacred in northern Burkina Faso.
The African Centre for Strategic Studies forecasts that militant Islamist groups will be responsible for approximately 8,600 deaths in Burkina Faso this year, marking a staggering 137-percent increase from the previous year’s 3,627 fatalities.
The ongoing violence underpins the intricate and changing geopolitical delicacies in the Sahel, emphasising the varied results of foreign military interventions in the region.
SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION
Before the July 2023 coup in Niger, the U.S. maintained a significant presence with over 1,000 troops and two drone bases: Air Base 101 in Niamey and Air Base 201 near Agadez in Niger, utilized for counterterrorism operations against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in West Africa.
Following the military coup, France was forced to recall its troops, emulating actions taken in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president agreed to withdraw 1,500 troops from Niger by the year’s end, following complete withdrawal from Mali in August 2022 and the cessation of military cooperation with Burkina Faso in February 2024, despite escalating attacks from Islamist insurgents in those countries.
This geopolitical vacuum has provided Russia and China with opportunities to extend their influence by offering rapid support to the new regimes without the stringent conditions typically imposed by Western powers.
However, their involvement fails to address the underlying issues critical to long-term stability, including armed group proliferation, government corruption, desertification of Arable land and persistent poverty.
It should be affirmed without any fear of contradiction that merely changing the overlord by replacing Western influence with Eastern may not tackle the issues afflicting the Sahel.
The seeming shift from Western to Eastern alliances in the Sahel poses noteworthy questions about the prospects for regional security and the management of natural and mineral resources for the benefit of the masses.
Moreover, it remains unclear whether this pendulum swing to the East will mitigate the extremist violence that has destabilised the region for years.
As the West seemingly retreats, adopting a more passive role, it watches as the Sahel navigates this new geopolitical reality, potentially ushering in a period of continued unrest and strategic realignment.