By: Thaimu Bai Sesay
Using the PR System of voting on a survey, the Institute for Government Reforms (IGR) has on Wednesday 31st May 2023 in a press conference organized in their office, launched the Sierrapool report which predicted that the SLPP might win more parliamentary seats than the APC in the June 24, 2023 general elections.
According to the statistics of the forecast report, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) might win a total of 71 to 80 seats which is made up of 53-59 per cent, while the All People’s Congress (APC) party might win a total of 50-62 seats which made up of 37-46 per cent.
The Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Government Reforms Andrew Lavali clarified that the Sierrapool report is a prediction of the electoral map of Sierra Leone for the June 24 elections. He expressed that the survey report was influenced by their curiosity to determine which political party would win more seats, and if the 30 per cent quota for women would be achieved in the forthcoming elections. He furthered that the report also aimed at increasing the integrity and accuracy of the elections and managing its expectations.
“For this Survey, we took 2,448 interviews countrywide and we did two levels of stratifications. The first level is the Voter Registration Centre (VRC) system. The Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone (ECSL) has 3,360 voter registrations. So, the first stage we used was called randomization in which we selected 245 voter registration centres. And the second stage we did was to select the interviewees for those centres. Therefore, we selected 10 interviewees from 10 households in each voter registration centre area,” IGR CEO elucidated.
Predicting the 30 per cent quota for women, Andrew Lavali explained that under the current circumstances, care would be taken but said Sierra Leone would not achieve the 30 per cent women representation in parliament. He said at the moment of reporting only one-Woman MP was selected for Paramount Chief and went on projecting that if combined together about 26 perfect women representations would be possibly seen in the next parliament. He holistically reinforced that in terms of the parliamentary composition, they were expecting to see a total of 53-59 per cent representation for SLPP, 37-46 for APC and about 0.7-1.5 per cent representation for NGC.
According to the statistics of the report in relation to some districts, Lavali uncovered that Kambia remained a competitive district for both SLPP and APC. He projected that APC might win 3 parliamentary seats while SLPP might win 2-3 parliamentary seats and NGC 1-2 parliamentary seats. He also predicted that the highest percentage of women’s representation in parliament might come from Kailahun and followed by Bo if possibly the SLPP would win all the seats in Bo. Andrew Lavali also predicted that 50-54 per cent of the current members of parliament might retain and the women would make double their present percentage of representation.
Based on the Proportional Representation (PR) System using the Sierrapool forecast survey, Lavali predicted that it would difficult for smaller parties and independent candidates to survive in the June 24 election. He forecasted that the forthcoming elections would be highly based on major regions and tribes. He disclosed that it was believed that if a higher percentage of the Mende and other related tribes decided not to vote for SLPP, it might not win and also if a major percentage of the Temne and other related tribes decided not to vote for APC, its as well might not win.
IGR CEO reiterated that the Sierrapool was a nonpartisan prediction survey and its outcome might not be exact but assured that it might go closer to the expected results. He further clarified that the predictions might change a few days before the election if political parties do their homework well.
